I am going to have a go at the goals in this match, it sees Mainz 05 who are 15th in the league and trying to not be drawn into the relegation playoff position and TSG Hoffenheim who are playing for a Europa League place, both clubs have a lot to play for of course with Mainz having the slightly the more motivation. However I am not looking at the match odds what I am looking for is the over goals Mainz have an average of 3.5 goals in their games while Hoffenheim has 3.11, the game earlier in the season saw Mainz run out 5-1 winners. On average Mainz are allowing 1.85 goals on the expected goals conceded per game, Hoffenheim is expected to score 1.3 goals on the expected goals charts this season away from home however they look very vulnerable at the back and the expected goal charts show that they should have conceded over 8 goals more than they actually have done basically meaning they have been very fortunate away from home this season. Mainz have seen 9 of their last 15 games have at least 3 goals in them while Hoffenheim has seen 11 of their last 15 have 3 or more goals. I think Overs 3 at the current odds is a fair bet, both sides have something to play so if they fall behind we should see the other team have to push for a goal and with Mainz having tough games to come they should go out with this match thinking of trying to get the 3 points. Betting the Over 3 goals in a match that should feature plenty of goals.
Over 3 goals scored min odds 1.86