Very much the same reasoning as the Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich game where Mainz are unlikely to get anything from the match but they won’t want to take a heavy defeat because of the impact it will have on their goals difference. Borussia Dortmund has already qualified for the champions league for next season thanks to a late winner v Fortuna. Dortmund was lucky to win after Fortuna went close a number of times in the 2nd half to take the lead and even stroke the woodwork, the expected goals were only Fortuna 0.38 v Dortmund’s 0.68, so you can see Dortmund created very little. If this game was being played in front of a large full stadium of expected home fans I may not bet it as quickly as I am but I think no fans will help the team with motivation or rather will have a more of a negative impact on the team without motivation or less motivation. In this case with Mainz scrapping for their, Bundesliga lives they have the larger motivation but even if they find themselves 2-0 it could be a case; they settle for losing 2-0 rather than pushing to get back into the game so because of the fear goal difference could play in deciding relegation. I am betting both Mainz on the handicap and the under 3.5 goals in the game.
