Romania vs Israel
I am betting Israel here +0.5, I am basically opposing Romania a team who i believe have had more than a slice of luck on their side in recent games, they drew in Switzerland 2-2 but really Switzerland should have won by about 3 goals they were lucky to collect a point in Kosovo before that too and were unimpressive against Belarus and Andorra prior to that. Israel for me are a decent side and +0.5 away to Romania feels more than fair and worth a bet.