Manchester City vs Aston Villa
City are not playing well but for neither are Aston Villa, Villa run of form and results include a draw at home to Wolves 1-1, then they were knocked out of the cup by league 2 side Stevenage at home, they then beat Leeds 2-1 and followed it up by winning 1-0 away win against Southampton and in both those games they were fortunate to take maximum points and then they were put firmly in their place by Leicester last weekend losing 4-2 at home. City on the other hand were beaten by Spurs away last weekend but they have a dreadful record there and Pep Guardiola made a number of strange calls when announcing his lineup, namely leaving key player Kevin De Bruyne out but I do think we will see Pep name a more sensible lineup today. During the week it was announced that City could face sanctions and penalties for financial irregularities and Guardiola referenced it a number of times during his press conference in the build up to today’s game, it felt to me he may have been using it to build a ‘us against the world’ type mindset or a siege mentality and if he was I would not be surprised playing at home that we a far more hungry City side. With City’s game against Arsenal coming up in midweek I expect City to get the job done today and -1.5 is a good line for a bet on the champions home and for me the odds represent value.