The Premier League re-starts tonight and the 2nd game features Man City hosting Arsenal, I think the goal line is too big here for a couple of reasons I will explain a little later in this preview. We have seen throughout these re-starts no matter what league it is that the big favourites have struggled to cover handicaps on their first game back, Bayern Munich only beat Union Berlin 2-0 away on the first weekend in Germany, RB Leipzig drew 1-1 with Freiburg, Porto was beaten 2-1 by Famalicao, Benfica drew 0-0 at home to Tondela, Real Madrid did beat Eibar 3-1 but they still never covered the handicap line, there has been exceptions but generally we have seen sides struggle when they are heavy favourites. In the lead up to this game, Arsenal has played 2 friendly matches against championship clubs while City played a behind-closed-door training match amongst their own squad, it could be argued that Arsenal is closer to peak fitness than City areas in my view playing actual matches is the best to bring players on in terms of fitness. This was backed up by City manager Pep Guardiola who came out yesterday and said his players were not yet ready, obviously, it is debatable how much of that statement is mind games but Arsenal would seem to have gone through more of a pre-season in their build-up to the new season than City have. As well as that Arsenal manager Arteta left City for Arsenal earlier in the season so he is sure to have a game plan for this match to try and contain City. I am reluctant to bet both the handicap and the goals in the first match back but in theory, with fans not being in the ground, home advantage is less and that means the goals expectancy should decrease as well, so I am betting the under 3.5 goals, only 2 of the last 7 matches between these 2 sides have featured over 3.5 goals and due to lack of peak fitness, we may not see that out and out attacking game between these 2 teams we are used to seeing.
Under 3.5 Goals scored min odds 1.83