Bournemouth vs Southampton
I am betting Southampton +1 here as much as I think Bournemouth are a decent team and have played well in some tough away games there is something that wants me to take them on when i see them -1 in the Premier league both team should have scored 11 more goals combined according to the xG number and this would have normally brought the goals into play but I think the line of 3.25 feels about right and that information feels factored in. Getting back to my bet Southampton have performed at a decent level in their last 2 matches, they were much the better team up until they missed a penalty v Manchester United, they were the better side last week v Ipswich, I think +1 is simply too big and worth a bet.