Santos clinched their ticket to the Copa Libertadores’ round-of-16 three weeks ago when beating Olimpia 3-2 away. Therefore, they collected 13 points from 15 available to win group G with one game to go. On Saturday, O Peixe won 2-1 away at Coritiba to climb into the fifth spot of the Brazilian league table on 27 points, seven behind leaders. Overall, Cuca’s men suffered a single defeat in their last 14 matches (seven victories and six draws). It was to Atletico Goianiense 1-0 at home last Wednesday, which stopped Santos’ six-match unbeaten run at Urbano Caldeira Stadium (two successes, four stalemates).
After two consecutive successes in the Copa Libertadores, Defensa y Justicia have stepped back on their fight to reach the round of 16 following a 3-0 away defeat at Delfin. Still waiting for the Argentine football restart, El Halcon needs to win in Brazil to achieve their goal as they are second-placed on six points, one above Olimpia in third. Defensa played five away matches in 2020 so far, registering a single victory (at Estudiantes 2-1), two draws and two defeats.
The math is simple for Defensa: if they don’t win here they will need a miracle in the other game of the group to advance. Santos is a better team and they should be relaxed but trying to finish the groups’ stage in good form, so I expect an open game here with the visitors sooner than later having to take risks.