Independiente del Valle (Ecuador) – Atletico Mineiro (Brazil)
Independiente del Valle achieved what seemed impossible: they defeated Once Caldas 2-0 away and then won on penalties to reach the Copa Sudamericana semifinals. They also earned a 2-1 away victory over Orense last Friday to move even closer to the league title — they lead Ecuador’s Serie A with 70 points, 15 ahead of LDU Quito with eight rounds remaining. Independiente have lost only one of their last seven matches across all competitions (four wins and two draws).
A dramatic 91st-minute goal from Bernard allowed Atlético Mineiro to finally break the deadlock against Club Bolívar, sealing a 1-0 home win and a 3-2 aggregate victory to reach the semifinals. On Saturday, the team fell 1-0 away to SC Corinthians, dropping to 15th place in the Brasileirao standings with 33 points — just five above the relegation zone. O Galo have won only one of their last five matches across all competitions (two draws and two defeats) and are winless in their last seven away outings, with one draw and six losses. Lyanco, Aleksander, and Tomás Cuello are sidelined through injury, while Fausto Vera and Patrick — potential replacements — are also unavailable for different reasons.
Independiente del Valle are two times champions of this competition and they are closer to make it three: they’ve been quite strong this season, they will win the ecuadorian league and arrive at this game in their bestmoment with no injuries. Atletico Mineiro were lucky to eliminate Bolivar, and they’ve been struggling in the brazilian league with a terrible away run losing 6 of the last 7. They will also have important missings due to injuries, so I’ll trust the hosts to win this 1st leg.
BET: Independiente del Valle -0.5 @ 1.85