Atletico Goianiense (Brazil) vs Sao Paulo (Brazil)
Atletico Goianiense are into the top four in the Copa Sudamericana for the first time in history thanks to their easy 3-0 home success over Nacional from Uruguay to make it 4-0 on aggregate. However, they also lost 2-1 away at Goias EC in the city derby last Saturday, which means O Dragao are on four competitive games without a win, having drawn two and lost two in that spell. That means they are occupying the penultimate spot in the Brazilian league table on 22 points after 24 matches, trailing the last safe place by three. On a positive note, Goianiense are on four matches unbeaten at home (three victories and one draw).
Meanwhile, Sao Paulo won on penalties over Ceara SC after a 2-1 away defeat in the return leg (having won 1-0 at home). However, the team are struggling in the league: Last Sunday, Rogerio Ceni’s men lost 1-0 to Fortaleza EC at home, which means they remain on 29 points after 24 rounds, sitting into the 13th place in the league table at the moment. Sao Paulo have been winless in their last four matches in all competitions, drawing one and losing three. On away turf, they haven’t won any of the last seven in regular time (four stalemates and three losses).
Two very irregular teams, but I think this odds on the hosts are too high specially considering how well they played on the previous stage of this competition.