Atletico Mineiro (Brazil) – Fluminense (Brazil)

Atletico Mineiro fans will have felt devastated after the team’s 1-0 away defeat to Fluminense FC after conceding in the 87th minute, which now forces them to win at home in order to keep their hope alive. On Sunday, O Galo won 3-0 at home over Red Bull Bragantino to stop a three-match winless streak in all competition (one draw and two losses), climbing into ninth spot of the Brasileirao table on 36 points. Atletico Mineiro lost only one of their last nine home matches, winning six and drawing two.

Defending champions Fluminense FC took the first step towards the semi-finals last Wednesday, when beating Atletico Mineiro 1-0 at home thanks to a strike from Lima with just three minutes to go. However, it becomes harder in the league: O Tricolor lost 1-0 at home to Botafogo FR, which dropped them down to one of the relegation spots in the league table, accumulating just 27 points in 26 matches. Mano Menezes’ men lost two of their last three in all competitions (along with one victory) while they succumbed to four defeats across the last five on away turf, winning only once in that spell.

The 1st leg was a very balanced and tight game decided with a late goal for the hosts, and I expect this one to be similar. Fluminense are a tough team and they will try to hold to their lead from the 1st game, so I’ll go for the UNDER here because even if the hosts are winning 1-0 I don’t expect them to take risks.

BET: UNDER 2.25 @ 1.83