Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund
The more i look at this match the more i fancy Wolfsburg on the handicap betting of +0.75, Wolfsburg are the 6th best team in the league and if you look at the expected goals table Dortmund are only the 3rd best side level with Gladbach in 4th. Dortmund are super clinical but clinical to a level which is impossible to keep up to, they have scored 20 more goals than they would have expected to taking the quality of their chances created into consideration. They have been beaten 4 times on the road this season, losing to Bayern, Leverkusen, Hoffenheim and lowly Union Berlin, they have also dropped points away to Frankfurt, Freiburg and Schalke so they are vulnerable. Haland has improved them but they go into this match with doubts over so many players namely Sancho while fellow forward Reus is out with a thigh injury. Dortmund midfielder Emre Can is just back from Injury while his regular midfield partner Witsel is still recovering from injury as is the case with defender Zagadou. There is also an argument that Sancho may not be risked for the full game with Bayern coming up midweek and if that is the case that could be a massive boost for Wolfsburg. I think Wolfsburg are the value here i think Dortmund as mentioned above are vulnerable away from home and i think +0.75 is worth a bet on the home side.