Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin
The Berlin derby takes place tonight in Germany’s Bundesliga, due to the covid-19 outbreak games, the matches are played behind closed doors and without fans, it is still very debatable just how closed door games will play out and the impact they have on home advantage, for sure it is a reduction but by how much do we reduce? For me i am reducing home advantage by 25%, I feel so far that this feels about right, it could be more or it could be less but people must remember there is much more to home advantage than supporters being in the stadium but for sure it is a telling factor. In terms of betting for that game tonight I am looking more towards the Goals for a bet, we have seen the under being bet in nearly all of last week’s matches but we saw 6 of the 9 games have at least 3 goals in them with the average goals over the 9 game being 3 goals per game, this is a drop from the season’s average which currently stands at 3.24 (Including last week) but i believe not as big as expected.
Tonight we see a goals line of 2.5 goals with both sides’s games averaging 3.19 and 2.88 goals. Both sides have below average attacks and defences but they are below average teams however Hertha have saw their last 6 games contain at least 3 goals in them, they kept a clean sheet last week away at Hoffenheim but in essence they were fortunate and should have been losing when they actually scored and took the lead going on to win 3-0. The expected goals in that match was Hoffenheim 2.79 v Hertha’s 1.55. Union played Bayern, they did not create a lot but they played for a large period of the match without top scorer Andersson who is by some margin their top scorer, he came off the bench so expect him to start tonight and give Union more bite up top but they are still coughing up an expected 1.84 goals a game, which is massive. Union will be missing Schlotterbeck who started in the middle of their back line v Bayern which is a blow, while Dardic should come in for Hertha in midfield with Hertha having the luxury of being able to call on loan AC Milan striker Piatek from the bench. I like Hertha -0.25, they are a side who i think will improve for the new manager Labbadia coming in but i think the goals is the bet tonight, over 2.5 goals is a small line in the Bundesliga and is begging to be bet. For sure without supporters we can expect a fall in goals scored as players naturally react to supporter’s urging their players forward and we also may see a fall in tempo which will impact on goals too but i think it is more than compensated in the line of 2.5 at odds currently being 1.94.
Over 2.5 Scored min odds 1.87