West Ham host relegation-threatened Aston Villa and it’s a bit like the other 2 matches that feature teams who are trying to stay up, I think the relegation-threatened side are worth taking on here, they are not used to winning and are horrible odds. I simply can’t have Aston Villa -0.25 away to a side who only went to Old Trafford a few days ago and picked up a point and a deserved point in my opinion too. West Ham has looked a much better side of late with 2 defeats in 6 and in both games that they lost I thought they were unlucky to lose, their better performances are reflected in the expected goals number I use as well. Since the Chelsea win their xG show that they have averaged 2.01 expected goals per game, which is very excellent considering they have played both Chelsea and Man United in that run of games, defensively they have averaged just an xGA (Expected goals against) of just 6.74 in the 6 matches or 1.12 per game. Those are great numbers and getting +0.25 at home tomorrow against a Villa side who will have more motivation but also more pressure and also knowing that a point may keep them I think West Ham is worth a go. Yes, Villa has improved as well but their odds are crazy and it is so difficult to ignore West Hamn given their form.
